Modena vs Cesena: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Modena the pick at 56% for Modena vs Cesena. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Modena host Cesena on 24 October 2026 at Alberto Braglia, Modena. Modena are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 8 fixture in Serie B is listed as Modena - Cesena. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Modena: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 20 conceded in 18 matches, 1.11 and 1.11 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +4.
Cesena: they come in on the back of a draw, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 31 conceded in 18 matches, 0.83 and 1.72 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Modena | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 12th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWDL | DLDDD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 7 | 5 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.11 / 1.11 | 0.83 / 1.72 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.11 | 0.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.3 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 18% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Modena 49.3 versus Cesena 38.1, a gap of 11.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Modena's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Modena at 56%, a gap of 31 percentage points to the next outcome. Modena's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Modena's way, especially at Alberto Braglia.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Modena or Cesena?
Modena, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Modena, 26% the draw and 18% Cesena.
When and where is Modena vs Cesena being played?
24 October 2026 at Alberto Braglia, Modena, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Modena and Cesena?
Modena 0-0 Cesena on 07 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Modena and Cesena?
Modena have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWDL), Cesena 4 from theirs (DLDDD). Most recently Modena took a 1-2 defeat away at Carrarese and Cesena a 1-1 draw at home to Avellino.
How many goals are expected in Modena vs Cesena?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.60 for Modena and 0.80 for Cesena. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.