Arezzo vs Ascoli: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Ascoli the pick at 47% for Arezzo vs Ascoli. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Ascoli travel to Arezzo on 1 November 2026 at Stadio Città di Arezzo, Arezzo. Ascoli are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie B is listed as Arezzo - Ascoli. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Arezzo: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored three and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -10.
Ascoli: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Arezzo | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -10 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWDL | WWDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 8 | 12 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.8 | 64.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 47% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Arezzo 35.8 versus Ascoli 64.2, a gap of 28.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.05, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Ascoli's way at 48%.
The call
The model tilts to Ascoli at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Ascoli's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Arezzo or Ascoli?
Ascoli, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 27% Arezzo, 26% the draw and 47% Ascoli.
When and where is Arezzo vs Ascoli being played?
1 November 2026 at Stadio Città di Arezzo, Arezzo, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Arezzo and Ascoli met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Arezzo and Ascoli?
Arezzo have taken 4 points from their last five (LLWDL), Ascoli 11 from theirs (WWDDW). Most recently Arezzo took a 1-2 defeat away at Carrarese and Ascoli a 2-0 win at home to Sampdoria.
How many goals are expected in Arezzo vs Ascoli?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.05 — 0.80 for Arezzo and 2.25 for Ascoli. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.