Catanzaro vs Padova: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Catanzaro the pick at 62% for Catanzaro vs Padova. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Catanzaro host Padova on 31 October 2026 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro. Catanzaro are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie B is listed as Catanzaro - Padova. Kick-off is 16:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Catanzaro: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 29 conceded in 23 matches, 1.78 and 1.26 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.9 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -11.
Padova: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 24 conceded in 17 matches, 0.88 and 1.41 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Catanzaro | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDLL | WWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 14 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.78 / 1.26 | 0.88 / 1.41 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.7 | 1.06 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.9 | 44.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 14% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Catanzaro 28.9 versus Padova 44.8, a gap of 15.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Catanzaro's way at 68%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Catanzaro at 62%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. Padova's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Catanzaro's way, especially at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Catanzaro or Padova?
Catanzaro, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% Catanzaro, 24% the draw and 14% Padova.
When and where is Catanzaro vs Padova being played?
31 October 2026 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Catanzaro and Padova?
Padova 1-3 Catanzaro on 14 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Catanzaro and Padova?
Catanzaro have taken 2 points from their last five (DLDLL), Padova 6 from theirs (WWLLL). Most recently Catanzaro took a 1-1 draw away at Benevento and Padova a 2-0 win at home to Sudtirol.
How many goals are expected in Catanzaro vs Padova?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.00 for Catanzaro and 1.20 for Padova. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.