Modena vs Mantova match summary and prediction — Serie B
Our model makes Modena the pick at 56% for Modena vs Mantova. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Modena host Mantova on 31 October 2026 at Alberto Braglia, Modena. Modena are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie B is listed as Modena - Mantova. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Modena: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 20 conceded in 18 matches, 1.11 and 1.11 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +8.
Mantova: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 23 conceded in 17 matches, 1.53 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Modena | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +8 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLWW | LWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 6 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.11 / 1.11 | 1.53 / 1.35 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.11 | 1.53 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 67.0 | 49.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 20% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Modena 67.0 versus Mantova 49.3, a gap of 17.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Modena's way at 63%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Modena at 56%, a gap of 32 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Modena's way, especially at Alberto Braglia.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Modena or Mantova?
Modena, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Modena, 24% the draw and 20% Mantova.
When and where is Modena vs Mantova being played?
31 October 2026 at Alberto Braglia, Modena, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Modena and Mantova?
Modena 2-1 Mantova on 21 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Modena and Mantova?
Modena have taken 12 points from their last five (WWLWW), Mantova 7 from theirs (LWLWD). Most recently Modena took a 2-1 win away at Vicenza Virtus and Mantova a 0-2 defeat at home to Cremonese.
How many goals are expected in Modena vs Mantova?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Modena and 1.20 for Mantova. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.