Ascoli vs Palermo: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Ascoli the pick at 44% for Ascoli vs Palermo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Palermo travel to Ascoli on 6 November 2026 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno. Ascoli are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie B is listed as Ascoli - Palermo. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Ascoli: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored nine and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +10.
Palermo: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored 14 and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +12.
Side by side
| Statistic | Ascoli | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +10 | +12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWDD | WDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 2 | 14 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.5 | 71.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 33% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Ascoli 57.5 versus Palermo 71.3, a gap of 13.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Ascoli's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Ascoli at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Ascoli's way, especially at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ascoli or Palermo?
Ascoli, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Ascoli, 23% the draw and 33% Palermo.
When and where is Ascoli vs Palermo being played?
6 November 2026 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Have Ascoli and Palermo met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ascoli and Palermo?
Ascoli have taken 9 points from their last five (DWWDD), Palermo 13 from theirs (WDWWW). Most recently Ascoli took a 0-0 draw away at Arezzo and Palermo a 3-1 win at home to Vicenza Virtus.
How many goals are expected in Ascoli vs Palermo?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 1.80 for Ascoli and 2.40 for Palermo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is yes.