Carrarese vs Sampdoria: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Carrarese the pick at 43% for Carrarese vs Sampdoria. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Carrarese face Sampdoria on 8 November 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara. Carrarese are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie B is listed as Carrarese - Sampdoria. Kick-off is 16:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Carrarese: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 19 conceded in 17 matches, 1.12 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.0 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -4.
Sampdoria: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 21 conceded in 18 matches, 0.89 and 1.17 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.3 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Carrarese | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 19th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWW | WLDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 7 | 5 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.12 / 1.12 | 0.89 / 1.17 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.18 | 1.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 54.0 | 36.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Carrarese 54.0 versus Sampdoria 36.3, a gap of 17.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Carrarese's way at 54%.
The call
The model edges towards Carrarese at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Carrarese's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Carrarese's way, especially at Stadio dei Marmi.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Carrarese or Sampdoria?
Carrarese, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Carrarese, 29% the draw and 28% Sampdoria.
When and where is Carrarese vs Sampdoria being played?
8 November 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
Carrarese 2-0 Sampdoria on 18 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Carrarese and Sampdoria?
Carrarese have taken 9 points from their last five (LWLWW), Sampdoria 4 from theirs (WLDLL). Most recently Carrarese took a 0-3 defeat away at Hellas Verona and Sampdoria a 2-0 win at home to Virtus Entella.
How many goals are expected in Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.60 for Carrarese and 0.80 for Sampdoria. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.