Mantova vs Hellas Verona: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Mantova the pick at 44% for Mantova vs Hellas Verona. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Hellas Verona travel to Mantova on 7 November 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova. Mantova are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie B is listed as Mantova - Hellas Verona. Kick-off is 16:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Mantova: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +4.
Hellas Verona: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 5 conceded in six matches, 2.17 and 0.83 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.2 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Mantova | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWLW | WWDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 9 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.17 / 1.5 | 2.17 / 0.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.3 | 53.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Mantova 49.3 versus Hellas Verona 53.2, a gap of 3.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Mantova's way at 54%.
The call
The model edges towards Mantova at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Mantova's way, especially at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mantova or Hellas Verona?
Mantova, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Mantova, 29% the draw and 27% Hellas Verona.
When and where is Mantova vs Hellas Verona being played?
7 November 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Have Mantova and Hellas Verona met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Mantova and Hellas Verona?
Mantova have taken 7 points from their last five (DLWLW), Hellas Verona 8 from theirs (WWDDL). Most recently Mantova took a 1-1 draw away at Modena and Hellas Verona a 3-0 win at home to Carrarese.
How many goals are expected in Mantova vs Hellas Verona?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.00 for Mantova and 2.20 for Hellas Verona. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.