Padova vs Empoli match summary and prediction — Serie B
There is barely anything between Padova and Empoli on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Empoli travel to Padova on 7 November 2026 at Stadio Euganeo, Padova. Padova are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie B is listed as Padova - Empoli. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Padova: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 24 conceded in 17 matches, 0.88 and 1.41 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.1 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -1.
Empoli: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 26 conceded in 18 matches, 1.11 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.9 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Padova | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 18th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWLL | DLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 5 | 6 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.88 / 1.41 | 1.11 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.06 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.1 | 29.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Padova 48.1 versus Empoli 29.9, a gap of 18.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Padova's way at 48%.
The call
The model does not commit. Padova is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. Padova's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Padova's way, especially at Stadio Euganeo.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Padova or Empoli?
Padova, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% Padova, 34% the draw and 30% Empoli.
When and where is Padova vs Empoli being played?
7 November 2026 at Stadio Euganeo, Padova, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Padova and Empoli?
Padova 1-0 Empoli on 12 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Padova and Empoli?
Padova have taken 7 points from their last five (DWWLL), Empoli 2 from theirs (DLLDL). Most recently Padova took a 1-1 draw away at Catanzaro and Empoli a 2-2 draw at home to Juve Stabia.
How many goals are expected in Padova vs Empoli?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Padova and 0.80 for Empoli. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.