NEOM vs Al-Fateh — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for NEOM vs Al-Fateh. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
NEOM face Al-Fateh on 13 September 2026 at King Khalid Sports City, Tabuk. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 7 fixture in Pro League is listed as NEOM - Al-Fateh. Kick-off is 16:20 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
NEOM: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 43 conceded in 30 matches, 1.27 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +5.
Al-Fateh: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 54 conceded in 32 matches, 1.22 and 1.69 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | NEOM | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 16th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLW | LDDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 3 | 2 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 30 | 32 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.27 / 1.43 | 1.22 / 1.69 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.3 | 1.03 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.2 | 33.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 18% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): NEOM none wins, Al-Fateh one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Al-Fateh 2-2 NEOM on 02 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: NEOM 56.2 versus Al-Fateh 33.8, a gap of 22.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 15% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans NEOM's way at 59%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. NEOM's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: NEOM or Al-Fateh?
Neither side. Our model splits it 33% NEOM, 49% the draw and 18% Al-Fateh, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is NEOM vs Al-Fateh being played?
13 September 2026 at King Khalid Sports City, Tabuk, kick-off 16:20 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between NEOM and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh 2-2 NEOM on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of NEOM and Al-Fateh?
NEOM have taken 9 points from their last five (WWLLW), Al-Fateh 3 from theirs (LDDDL). Most recently NEOM took a 2-0 win away at Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh a 1-2 defeat at home to Al Diriyah.
How many goals are expected in NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.00 for NEOM and 0.80 for Al-Fateh. It rates over 2.5 goals at 15%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.