Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab match summary and prediction — Pro League
Our model makes a draw the pick at 45% for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Al Shabab travel to Al-Fateh on 22 October 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Hofuf. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 45%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 11 fixture in Pro League is listed as Al-Fateh - Al Shabab. Kick-off is 14:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Al-Fateh: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 54 conceded in 32 matches, 1.22 and 1.69 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -10.
Al Shabab: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (42 scored and 52 conceded in 32 matches, 1.31 and 1.62 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Al-Fateh | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -10 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLD | WDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 12 | 4 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 32 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.22 / 1.69 | 1.31 / 1.62 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.8 | 41.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 15% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Al-Fateh two wins, Al Shabab none wins, two draws — an edge to Al-Fateh.
- Most recent meeting: Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh on 28 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Al-Fateh 35.8 versus Al Shabab 41.2, a gap of 5.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 10% and both teams to score at 36%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Fateh's way at 66%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al-Fateh or Al Shabab?
Neither side. Our model splits it 39% Al-Fateh, 45% the draw and 15% Al Shabab, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
22 October 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Hofuf, kick-off 14:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh on 28 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLLD), Al Shabab 4 from theirs (WDLL). Most recently Al-Fateh took a 3-2 win away at Al-Hazm and Al Shabab a 3-0 win at home to Al Taawon.
How many goals are expected in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Al-Fateh and 1.20 for Al Shabab. It rates over 2.5 goals at 10%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 36%, so its call is no.