Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Al-Qadisiyah FC the pick at 51% for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC host Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 23 October 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Dammam. Al-Qadisiyah FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 11 fixture in Pro League is listed as Al-Qadisiyah FC - Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Al-Qadisiyah FC: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (73 scored and 32 conceded in 31 matches, 2.35 and 1.03 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +14.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC: they come in on a four-match winning sequence. That is four wins, no draws and no defeats from the last four, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (87 scored and 30 conceded in 36 matches, 2.42 and 0.83 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +19.
Side by side
| Statistic | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Al-Hilal Saudi FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +14 | +19 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWD | WWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 6 | 13 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 31 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.35 / 1.03 | 2.42 / 0.83 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.26 | 2.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 71.8 | 69.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 11% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Al-Qadisiyah FC one win, Al-Hilal Saudi FC one win, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 29 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 71.8 versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69.8, a gap of 2.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 91% and both teams to score at 34%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Qadisiyah FC's way at 72%.
The call
The model tilts to Al-Qadisiyah FC at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Al-Qadisiyah FC's way, especially at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 39% the draw and 11% Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
When and where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
23 October 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Dammam, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 29 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWWD), Al-Hilal Saudi FC 12 from theirs (WWWW). Most recently Al-Qadisiyah FC took a 2-1 win at home to Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 2-0 win away at Al Sadd.
How many goals are expected in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.60 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 2.00 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 91%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 34%, so its call is no.