NEOM vs Abha — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes NEOM the pick at 60% for NEOM vs Abha. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Abha travel to NEOM on 24 October 2026 at King Khalid Sport City Stadium, Tabuk. NEOM are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This matchday 11 fixture in Pro League is listed as NEOM - Abha. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
NEOM: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.6 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +5.
Abha: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, one draw and two defeats from the last three, worth 1 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those three they scored two and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.1 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | NEOM | Abha |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 18th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWDW | LDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 2 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.6 | 26.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 60% | 16% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: NEOM 49.6 versus Abha 26.1, a gap of 23.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans NEOM's way at 60%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards NEOM at 60%, a gap of 36 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts NEOM's way, especially at King Khalid Sport City Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: NEOM or Abha?
NEOM, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 60% NEOM, 24% the draw and 16% Abha.
When and where is NEOM vs Abha being played?
24 October 2026 at King Khalid Sport City Stadium, Tabuk, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have NEOM and Abha met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of NEOM and Abha?
NEOM have taken 7 points from their last five (LLWDW), Abha 1 from theirs (LDL). Most recently NEOM took a 0-1 defeat away at Al-Nassr and Abha a 1-2 defeat away at Al-Qadisiyah FC.
How many goals are expected in NEOM vs Abha?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 2.00 for NEOM and 0.50 for Abha. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.