Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Al-Nassr the pick at 70% for Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Al-Nassr face Al Kholood on 29 October 2026 at King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh. Al-Nassr are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This matchday 12 fixture in Pro League is listed as Al-Nassr - Al Kholood. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Al-Nassr: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (83 scored and 23 conceded in 31 matches, 2.68 and 0.74 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +15.
Al Kholood: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 60 conceded in 33 matches, 1.18 and 1.82 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Al-Nassr | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 9th |
| Goal difference | +15 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | LLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 6 | 4 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 31 | 33 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.68 / 0.74 | 1.18 / 1.82 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.58 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 72.1 | 33.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 70% | 13% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 3 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Al-Nassr three wins, Al Kholood none wins, one draw — an edge to Al-Nassr.
- Most recent meeting: Al Kholood 0-3 Al-Nassr on 30 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Al-Nassr 72.1 versus Al Kholood 33.2, a gap of 38.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Nassr's way at 69%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Al-Nassr at 70%, a gap of 53 percentage points to the next outcome. Al-Nassr's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Al-Nassr's way, especially at King Saud University Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al-Nassr or Al Kholood?
Al-Nassr, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 70% Al-Nassr, 17% the draw and 13% Al Kholood.
When and where is Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood being played?
29 October 2026 at King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Al-Nassr and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood 0-3 Al-Nassr on 30 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Al-Nassr and Al Kholood?
Al-Nassr have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Al Kholood 3 from theirs (LLLLW). Most recently Al-Nassr took a 3-1 win away at Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood a 0-3 defeat at home to Al-Ettifaq.
How many goals are expected in Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.40 for Al-Nassr and 0.80 for Al Kholood. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.