Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah match summary and prediction — Pro League
Our model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the pick at 60% for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Al Shabab face Al-Ahli Jeddah on 30 October 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh. Al-Ahli Jeddah are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This matchday 12 fixture in Pro League is listed as Al Shabab - Al-Ahli Jeddah. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Al Shabab: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (42 scored and 52 conceded in 32 matches, 1.31 and 1.62 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.7 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of 0.
Al-Ahli Jeddah: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (81 scored and 28 conceded in 38 matches, 2.13 and 0.74 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.5 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +14.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Al Shabab | Al-Ahli Jeddah |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 5th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWDL | WWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 15 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 38 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.31 / 1.62 | 2.13 / 0.74 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.09 | 2.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.7 | 68.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 19% | 60% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Al Shabab one win, Al-Ahli Jeddah two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah on 13 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Al Shabab 51.7 versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 68.5, a gap of 16.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Ahli Jeddah's way at 65%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Al-Ahli Jeddah at 60%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al Shabab or Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 19% Al Shabab, 21% the draw and 60% Al-Ahli Jeddah.
When and where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
30 October 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah on 13 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Shabab have taken 8 points from their last five (WDWDL), Al-Ahli Jeddah 12 from theirs (WWWWL). Most recently Al Shabab took a 3-1 win away at Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah a 4-1 win at home to Al Khaleej Saihat.
How many goals are expected in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.00 for Al Shabab and 2.80 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.