Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Al-Fateh the pick at 41% for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Al Riyadh travel to Al-Fateh on 5 November 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Hofuf. Al-Fateh are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 13 fixture in Pro League is listed as Al-Fateh - Al Riyadh. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Al-Fateh: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 54 conceded in 32 matches, 1.22 and 1.69 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.2 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -15.
Al Riyadh: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 52 conceded in 30 matches, 1.1 and 1.73 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -14.
Side by side
| Statistic | Al-Fateh | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -15 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWL | LWLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 14 | 5 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.22 / 1.69 | 1.1 / 1.73 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.03 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.2 | 44.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 35% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Al-Fateh one win, Al Riyadh two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Al-Fateh 31.2 versus Al Riyadh 44.8, a gap of 13.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Fateh's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Al-Fateh at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Al Riyadh's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Al-Fateh's way, especially at Al Fateh club stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al-Fateh or Al Riyadh?
Al-Fateh, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Al-Fateh, 24% the draw and 35% Al Riyadh.
When and where is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh being played?
5 November 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Hofuf, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
Al-Fateh have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLWL), Al Riyadh 7 from theirs (LWLDW). Most recently Al-Fateh took a 0-2 defeat away at Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh a 0-6 defeat at home to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
How many goals are expected in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Al-Fateh and 0.80 for Al Riyadh. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.