Omonia Nicosia vs AEL: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Omonia Nicosia the pick at 49% for Omonia Nicosia vs AEL. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
AEL travel to Omonia Nicosia on 31 October 2026 at GSP Stadium, Nicosia. Omonia Nicosia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 8 fixture in 1. Division is listed as Omonia Nicosia - AEL. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Omonia Nicosia: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored nine and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.4 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +7.
AEL: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Omonia Nicosia | AEL |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +7 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDWW | LWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 8 | 9 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 53.4 | 65.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Omonia Nicosia 53.4 versus AEL 65.0, a gap of 11.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.95, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Omonia Nicosia's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Omonia Nicosia at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. AEL's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Omonia Nicosia's way, especially at GSP Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Omonia Nicosia or AEL?
Omonia Nicosia, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Omonia Nicosia, 23% the draw and 28% AEL.
When and where is Omonia Nicosia vs AEL being played?
31 October 2026 at GSP Stadium, Nicosia, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Omonia Nicosia and AEL met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Omonia Nicosia and AEL?
Omonia Nicosia have taken 7 points from their last five (LLDWW), AEL 12 from theirs (LWWWW). Most recently Omonia Nicosia took a 0-2 defeat away at AEK Larnaca and AEL a 1-3 defeat at home to Aris.
How many goals are expected in Omonia Nicosia vs AEL?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.95 — 0.60 for Omonia Nicosia and 1.35 for AEL. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.