AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes AEK Larnaca the pick at 61% for AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
AEK Larnaca face Karmiotissa on 6 November 2026 at AEK Arena, Larnaca. AEK Larnaca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This matchday 9 fixture in 1. Division is listed as AEK Larnaca - Karmiotissa. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
AEK Larnaca: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored nine and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.7 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +8.
Karmiotissa: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored two and conceded ten, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.6 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | AEK Larnaca | Karmiotissa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 9th |
| Goal difference | +8 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWDW | WLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 2 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.7 | 35.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 61% | 14% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: AEK Larnaca 63.7 versus Karmiotissa 35.6, a gap of 28.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans AEK Larnaca's way at 69%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards AEK Larnaca at 61%, a gap of 36 percentage points to the next outcome. AEK Larnaca's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts AEK Larnaca's way, especially at AEK Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AEK Larnaca or Karmiotissa?
AEK Larnaca, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 61% AEK Larnaca, 25% the draw and 14% Karmiotissa.
When and where is AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa being played?
6 November 2026 at AEK Arena, Larnaca, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa?
AEK Larnaca have taken 11 points from their last five (DWWDW), Karmiotissa 4 from theirs (WLLLD). Most recently AEK Larnaca took a 2-2 draw away at Krasava Ypsonas and Karmiotissa a 1-0 win at home to Olympiakos.
How many goals are expected in AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for AEK Larnaca and 1.00 for Karmiotissa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is yes.