Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W match summary and prediction — FA WSL
Our model makes Arsenal W the pick at 77% for Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Arsenal W host Aston Villa W on 1 November 2026 at Meadow Park, Borehamwood. Arsenal W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 77%. This matchday 8 fixture in FA WSL is listed as Arsenal W - Aston Villa W. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Arsenal W: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored ten and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -1.
Aston Villa W: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored nine and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.4 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Arsenal W | Aston Villa W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 8th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLD | DWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 8 | 9 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.4 | 50.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 77% | 10% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Arsenal W 41.4 versus Aston Villa W 50.4, a gap of 9.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.30, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Arsenal W's way at 76%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Arsenal W at 77%, a gap of 64 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Arsenal W's way, especially at Meadow Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Arsenal W or Aston Villa W?
Arsenal W, with an implied win probability of roughly 77%. The full split is 77% Arsenal W, 13% the draw and 10% Aston Villa W.
When and where is Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W being played?
1 November 2026 at Meadow Park, Borehamwood, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Have Arsenal W and Aston Villa W met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Arsenal W and Aston Villa W?
Arsenal W have taken 8 points from their last five (WWDLD), Aston Villa W 11 from theirs (DWWWD). Most recently Arsenal W took a 3-0 win at home to SL Benfica W and Aston Villa W a 1-1 draw at home to Birmingham City W.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.30 — 1.80 for Arsenal W and 2.50 for Aston Villa W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.