Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Aston Villa W the pick at 54% for Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Aston Villa W host Birmingham City W on 15 November 2026 at Bescot Stadium, Walsall. Aston Villa W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 10 fixture in FA WSL is listed as Aston Villa W - Birmingham City W. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Aston Villa W: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored seven and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -6.
Birmingham City W: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored nine and conceded nine, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Aston Villa W | Birmingham City W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -6 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDWW | LLDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.2 | 35.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 24% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Aston Villa W 50.2 versus Birmingham City W 35.8, a gap of 14.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Aston Villa W's way at 61%.
The call
The model tilts to Aston Villa W at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Aston Villa W's way, especially at Bescot Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Aston Villa W or Birmingham City W?
Aston Villa W, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Aston Villa W, 22% the draw and 24% Birmingham City W.
When and where is Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W being played?
15 November 2026 at Bescot Stadium, Walsall, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Have Aston Villa W and Birmingham City W met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Aston Villa W and Birmingham City W?
Aston Villa W have taken 8 points from their last five (LDDWW), Birmingham City W 7 from theirs (LLDWW). Most recently Aston Villa W took a 0-1 defeat at home to Manchester United W and Birmingham City W a 1-4 defeat away at London City Lionesses W.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.50 for Aston Villa W and 1.00 for Birmingham City W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.