Wadi Degla vs El Mokawloon match summary and prediction — Premier League
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for Wadi Degla vs El Mokawloon. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Wadi Degla host El Mokawloon on 15 September 2026 at Petrosport Stadium, Cairo. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 5 fixture in Premier League is listed as Wadi Degla - El Mokawloon. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Wadi Degla: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 16 conceded in 19 matches, 1.32 and 0.84 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +1.
El Mokawloon: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 17 conceded in 18 matches, 1.11 and 0.94 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Wadi Degla | El Mokawloon |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 13th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWDW | DWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 3 | 7 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.32 / 0.84 | 1.11 / 0.94 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.68 | 1.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.9 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 19% | 32% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Wadi Degla none wins, El Mokawloon one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: El Mokawloon 1-1 Wadi Degla on 18 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Wadi Degla 41.9 versus El Mokawloon 38.1, a gap of 3.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 25% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans El Mokawloon's way at 48%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Wadi Degla or El Mokawloon?
Neither side. Our model splits it 19% Wadi Degla, 49% the draw and 32% El Mokawloon, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Wadi Degla vs El Mokawloon being played?
15 September 2026 at Petrosport Stadium, Cairo, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Wadi Degla and El Mokawloon?
El Mokawloon 1-1 Wadi Degla on 18 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Wadi Degla and El Mokawloon?
Wadi Degla have taken 8 points from their last five (LDWDW), El Mokawloon 7 from theirs (DWLLW). Most recently Wadi Degla took a 1-2 defeat away at Future FC and El Mokawloon a 1-1 draw at home to Al Ahly.
How many goals are expected in Wadi Degla vs El Mokawloon?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Wadi Degla and 1.40 for El Mokawloon. It rates over 2.5 goals at 25%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.