Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Ghazl El Mehalla the pick at 66% for Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Ghazl El Mehalla face Al Ittihad on 21 October 2026 at El-Gazel Stadium, El Mahalla El Kubra. Ghazl El Mehalla are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 66%. This matchday 7 fixture in Premier League is listed as Ghazl El Mehalla - Al Ittihad. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Ghazl El Mehalla: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 22 conceded in 20 matches, 1.0 and 1.1 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.1 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -9.
Al Ittihad: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 19 conceded in 19 matches, 1.11 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ghazl El Mehalla | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -9 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLD | WLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 6 | 7 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.1 | 1.11 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.1 | 1.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.1 | 66.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 66% | 6% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Ghazl El Mehalla one win, Al Ittihad one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 Al Ittihad on 18 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Ghazl El Mehalla 26.1 versus Al Ittihad 66.0, a gap of 39.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 23% and both teams to score at 28%.
- First goal: Leans Ghazl El Mehalla's way at 76%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Ghazl El Mehalla at 66%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. Al Ittihad's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Ghazl El Mehalla's way, especially at El-Gazel Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ghazl El Mehalla or Al Ittihad?
Ghazl El Mehalla, with an implied win probability of roughly 66%. The full split is 66% Ghazl El Mehalla, 28% the draw and 6% Al Ittihad.
When and where is Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad being played?
21 October 2026 at El-Gazel Stadium, El Mahalla El Kubra, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad?
Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 Al Ittihad on 18 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad?
Ghazl El Mehalla have taken 2 points from their last five (LDLLD), Al Ittihad 12 from theirs (WLWWW). Most recently Ghazl El Mehalla took a 0-1 defeat away at Smouha SC and Al Ittihad a 2-1 win at home to El Gouna FC.
How many goals are expected in Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Ghazl El Mehalla and 0.80 for Al Ittihad. It rates over 2.5 goals at 23%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 28%, so its call is no.