Al Ittihad vs El Geish match summary and prediction — Premier League
Our model makes Al Ittihad the pick at 44% for Al Ittihad vs El Geish. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Al Ittihad face El Geish on 30 October 2026 at Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria. Al Ittihad are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 8 fixture in Premier League is listed as Al Ittihad - El Geish. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Al Ittihad: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 19 conceded in 19 matches, 1.11 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
El Geish: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 15 conceded in 19 matches, 0.74 and 0.79 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Al Ittihad | El Geish |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 15th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWW | LLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 4 | 2 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.11 / 1.0 | 0.74 / 0.79 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.42 | 1.37 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 65.8 | 26.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 21% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Al Ittihad two wins, El Geish none wins, none draws — an edge to Al Ittihad.
- Most recent meeting: Al Ittihad 1-0 El Geish on 13 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Al Ittihad 65.8 versus El Geish 26.8, a gap of 38.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 36% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Al Ittihad's way at 49%.
The call
The model edges towards Al Ittihad at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Al Ittihad's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Al Ittihad's way, especially at Borg El Arab Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al Ittihad or El Geish?
Al Ittihad, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Al Ittihad, 35% the draw and 21% El Geish.
When and where is Al Ittihad vs El Geish being played?
30 October 2026 at Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Al Ittihad and El Geish?
Al Ittihad 1-0 El Geish on 13 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Al Ittihad and El Geish?
Al Ittihad have taken 9 points from their last five (LWLWW), El Geish 1 from theirs (LLLDL). Most recently Al Ittihad took a 1-2 defeat away at Ghazl El Mehalla and El Geish a 1-4 defeat at home to Pyramids FC.
How many goals are expected in Al Ittihad vs El Geish?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 2.00 for Al Ittihad and 0.40 for El Geish. It rates over 2.5 goals at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.