Rangers vs Celtic: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 50% for Rangers vs Celtic. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Rangers host Celtic on 13 September 2026 at Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 50%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This quarter finals fixture in League Cup is listed as Rangers - Celtic. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rangers: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 55 conceded in 31 matches, 1.94 and 1.77 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Celtic: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (59 scored and 43 conceded in 32 matches, 1.84 and 1.34 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rangers | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | WWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 2 | 9 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 31 | 32 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.94 / 1.77 | 1.84 / 1.34 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.42 | 1.94 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 16% | 33% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Rangers one win, Celtic one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Celtic 3-1 Rangers on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 16% and both teams to score at 33%.
- First goal: Leans Celtic's way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rangers or Celtic?
Neither side. Our model splits it 16% Rangers, 50% the draw and 33% Celtic, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Rangers vs Celtic being played?
13 September 2026 at Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Rangers and Celtic?
Celtic 3-1 Rangers on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Rangers and Celtic?
Rangers have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Celtic 12 from theirs (WWWWL). Most recently Rangers took a 1-0 win at home to ST Mirren and Celtic a 1-0 win away at ST Johnstone.
How many goals are expected in Rangers vs Celtic?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 1.40 for Rangers and 0.00 for Celtic. It rates over 2.5 goals at 16%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 33%, so its call is no.