Kashima vs Newcastle Jets: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 47% for Kashima vs Newcastle Jets. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Newcastle Jets travel to Kashima on 15 September 2026 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 47%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league phase 1 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Kashima - Newcastle Jets. Kick-off is 10:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Kashima: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored eight and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of 0.
Newcastle Jets: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored ten and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Kashima | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 13th |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWW | LDDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 7 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 16% | 37% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Kashima 25.0 versus Newcastle Jets 25.0, a gap of 0.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.53, over 2.5 goals at 99% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Newcastle Jets' way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Kashima or Newcastle Jets?
Neither side. Our model splits it 16% Kashima, 47% the draw and 37% Newcastle Jets, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Kashima vs Newcastle Jets being played?
15 September 2026 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Have Kashima and Newcastle Jets met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Kashima and Newcastle Jets?
Kashima have taken 6 points from their last five (LLLWW), Newcastle Jets 6 from theirs (LDDWD). Most recently Kashima took a 1-2 defeat away at Vissel Kobe and Newcastle Jets a 2-3 defeat away at Preston Lions.
How many goals are expected in Kashima vs Newcastle Jets?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.53 — 1.20 for Kashima and 3.33 for Newcastle Jets. It rates over 2.5 goals at 99%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.