Al Ain vs Al-Nassr: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Al-Nassr the pick at 67% for Al Ain vs Al-Nassr. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Al Ain face Al-Nassr on 15 September 2026 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Al Ain. Al-Nassr are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This league phase 1 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Al Ain - Al-Nassr. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Al Ain: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of 0.
Al-Nassr: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Al Ain | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWW | WLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 5 | 12 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 4% | 67% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Al Ain 25.0 versus Al-Nassr 25.0, a gap of 0.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.67, over 2.5 goals at 93% and both teams to score at 28%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Nassr's way at 74%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Al-Nassr at 67%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al Ain or Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 4% Al Ain, 28% the draw and 67% Al-Nassr.
When and where is Al Ain vs Al-Nassr being played?
15 September 2026 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Al Ain, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Al Ain and Al-Nassr met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Al Ain and Al-Nassr?
Al Ain have taken 13 points from their last five (DWWWW), Al-Nassr 12 from theirs (WLWWW). Most recently Al Ain took a 2-2 draw at home to Al-Wasl FC and Al-Nassr a 2-1 win at home to Abha.
How many goals are expected in Al Ain vs Al-Nassr?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.67 — 0.67 for Al Ain and 4.00 for Al-Nassr. It rates over 2.5 goals at 93%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 28%, so its call is no.