Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC the pick at 78% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Gharafa on 15 September 2026 at Kingdom Arena, Riyadh. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 78%. This league phase 1 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Al-Hilal Saudi FC - Al-Gharafa. Kick-off is 18:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Al-Hilal Saudi FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Across those five they scored 13 and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of 0.
Al-Gharafa: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored seven and conceded twelve, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 9th |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWW | LLLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 3 | 7 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 78% | 3% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 25.0 versus Al-Gharafa 25.0, a gap of 0.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 26%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Hilal Saudi FC's way at 79%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 78%, a gap of 59 percentage points to the next outcome. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Al-Hilal Saudi FC's way, especially at Kingdom Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Gharafa?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 78%. The full split is 78% Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 19% the draw and 3% Al-Gharafa.
When and where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa being played?
15 September 2026 at Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, kick-off 18:15 UTC.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Gharafa met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Gharafa?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 12 points from their last five (LWWWW), Al-Gharafa 4 from theirs (LLLWD). Most recently Al-Hilal Saudi FC took a 0-2 defeat at home to NEOM and Al-Gharafa a 1-4 defeat away at Al Sadd.
How many goals are expected in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.00 for Al-Gharafa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 26%, so its call is no.