Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Al-Ittihad FC the pick at 68% for Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Neftchi host Al-Ittihad FC on 26 October 2026 at Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana. Al-Ittihad FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 68%. This league phase 3 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Neftchi - Al-Ittihad FC. Kick-off is 13:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Neftchi: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded eleven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -1.
Al-Ittihad FC: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Across those four they scored eight and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Neftchi | Al-Ittihad FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLDW | WLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 11 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 15% | 68% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Neftchi 34.8 versus Al-Ittihad FC 38.1, a gap of 3.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.35, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Ittihad FC's way at 64%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Al-Ittihad FC at 68%, a gap of 51 percentage points to the next outcome. Neftchi's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Neftchi or Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 68%. The full split is 15% Neftchi, 17% the draw and 68% Al-Ittihad FC.
When and where is Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
26 October 2026 at Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana, kick-off 13:45 UTC.
Have Neftchi and Al-Ittihad FC met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Neftchi and Al-Ittihad FC?
Neftchi have taken 7 points from their last five (LWLDW), Al-Ittihad FC 4 from theirs (WLLD). Most recently Neftchi took a 2-4 defeat at home to Lokomotiv and Al-Ittihad FC a 4-1 win away at Al-Ettifaq.
How many goals are expected in Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.35 — 1.35 for Neftchi and 2.00 for Al-Ittihad FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.