Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa match summary and prediction — AFC Champions League Elite
Our model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the pick at 78% for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Gharafa on 26 October 2026 at Alinma Stadium, Jeddah. Al-Ahli Jeddah are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 78%. This league phase 3 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Gharafa. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Al-Ahli Jeddah: they come in on a three-match winning sequence. That is three wins, no draws and no defeats from the last three, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those three they scored ten and conceded three, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +2.
Al-Gharafa: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored nine and conceded nine, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.5 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 13th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWW | DDLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 3 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.8 | 24.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 78% | 5% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38.8 versus Al-Gharafa 24.5, a gap of 14.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Ahli Jeddah's way at 77%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Al-Ahli Jeddah at 78%, a gap of 62 percentage points to the next outcome. Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Al-Ahli Jeddah's way, especially at Alinma Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Gharafa?
Al-Ahli Jeddah, with an implied win probability of roughly 78%. The full split is 78% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 16% the draw and 5% Al-Gharafa.
When and where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa being played?
26 October 2026 at Alinma Stadium, Jeddah, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Gharafa met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Gharafa?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 9 points from their last three (WWW), Al-Gharafa 5 from theirs (DDLLW). Most recently Al-Ahli Jeddah took a 3-2 win away at Al-Fayha and Al-Gharafa a 2-2 draw at home to Al Ahli Doha.
How many goals are expected in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.80 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.40 for Al-Gharafa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.