Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor match summary and prediction — AFC Champions League Elite
Our model makes Al Quwa Al Jawiya the pick at 46% for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Al Quwa Al Jawiya face Pakhtakor on 26 October 2026 at Basra Sports City, Basra. Al Quwa Al Jawiya are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This league phase 3 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Al Quwa Al Jawiya - Pakhtakor. Kick-off is 18:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Al Quwa Al Jawiya: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored five and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -4.
Pakhtakor: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored eight and conceded five, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.7 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Pakhtakor |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWD | DDWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.0 | 41.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 30% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 24.0 versus Pakhtakor 41.7, a gap of 17.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Al Quwa Al Jawiya's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Pakhtakor's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Al Quwa Al Jawiya's way, especially at Basra Sports City.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Pakhtakor?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 24% the draw and 30% Pakhtakor.
When and where is Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor being played?
26 October 2026 at Basra Sports City, Basra, kick-off 18:15 UTC.
Have Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Pakhtakor met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Pakhtakor?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya have taken 5 points from their last five (LDLWD), Pakhtakor 9 from theirs (DDWWD). Most recently Al Quwa Al Jawiya took a 0-1 defeat away at Al Talaba and Pakhtakor a 1-1 draw away at Navbahor.
How many goals are expected in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 1.35 for Pakhtakor. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.