Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr match summary and prediction — AFC Champions League Elite
Al-Nassr travel to Pakhtakor needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 9th and unbeaten in four. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Al-Nassr travel to Pakhtakor on 2 November 2026 at Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent. Al-Nassr are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 74%. This league phase 4 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Pakhtakor - Al-Nassr. Kick-off is 13:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Pakhtakor: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -1.
Al-Nassr: they come in on a four-match winning sequence. That is four wins, no draws and no defeats from the last four, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those four they scored twelve and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -2. For a club of Al-Nassr's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Side by side
| Statistic | Pakhtakor | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLDD | WWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 6 | 12 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.4 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 10% | 74% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Pakhtakor 41.4 versus Al-Nassr 34.5, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Al-Nassr are 9th with a goal difference of -2 and unbeaten in four — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Nassr's way at 72%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Al-Nassr at 74%, a gap of 59 percentage points to the next outcome. Pakhtakor's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Pakhtakor or Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr, with an implied win probability of roughly 74%. The full split is 10% Pakhtakor, 15% the draw and 74% Al-Nassr.
When and where is Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr being played?
2 November 2026 at Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, kick-off 13:45 UTC.
Have Pakhtakor and Al-Nassr met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Pakhtakor and Al-Nassr?
Pakhtakor have taken 5 points from their last five (WLLDD), Al-Nassr 12 from theirs (WWWW). Most recently Pakhtakor took a 1-0 win away at Xorazm and Al-Nassr a 5-3 win at home to Al Kholood.
How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.00 for Pakhtakor and 2.20 for Al-Nassr. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.