Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Al-Qadisiyah FC the pick at 67% for Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to Al-Gharafa on 2 November 2026 at Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Al Rayyan. Al-Qadisiyah FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This league phase 4 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Al-Gharafa - Al-Qadisiyah FC. Kick-off is 18:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Al-Gharafa: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 10 conceded in seven matches, 1.0 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -3.
Al-Qadisiyah FC: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 10 conceded in seven matches, 2.86 and 1.43 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Al-Gharafa | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDDL | WDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 12 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.43 | 2.86 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.86 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.2 | 41.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 11% | 67% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Al-Gharafa 24.2 versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 41.9, a gap of 17.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Al-Qadisiyah FC's way at 69%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Al-Qadisiyah FC at 67%, a gap of 45 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al-Gharafa or Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 11% Al-Gharafa, 22% the draw and 67% Al-Qadisiyah FC.
When and where is Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
2 November 2026 at Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Al Rayyan, kick-off 18:15 UTC.
Have Al-Gharafa and Al-Qadisiyah FC met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Al-Gharafa and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Gharafa have taken 5 points from their last five (WLDDL), Al-Qadisiyah FC 10 from theirs (WDLWW). Most recently Al-Gharafa took a 2-0 win at home to Qatar SC and Al-Qadisiyah FC a 6-0 win away at Al Riyadh.
How many goals are expected in Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 1.20 for Al-Gharafa and 3.00 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.