Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Al Shamal the pick at 40% for Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Esteghlal FC host Al Shamal on 3 November 2026 at Basra Sports City, Basra. Al Shamal are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This league phase 4 fixture in AFC Champions League Elite is listed as Esteghlal FC - Al Shamal. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Esteghlal FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Across those four they scored four and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +2.
Al Shamal: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.2 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Esteghlal FC | Al Shamal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 6th |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWW | LWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 4 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.5 | 42.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 32% | 40% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Esteghlal FC 45.5 versus Al Shamal 42.2, a gap of 3.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Al Shamal's way at 49%.
The call
The model edges towards Al Shamal at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Esteghlal FC or Al Shamal?
Al Shamal, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 32% Esteghlal FC, 28% the draw and 40% Al Shamal.
When and where is Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal being played?
3 November 2026 at Basra Sports City, Basra, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Esteghlal FC and Al Shamal met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Esteghlal FC and Al Shamal?
Esteghlal FC have taken 7 points from their last four (LDWW), Al Shamal 5 from theirs (LWLDD). Most recently Esteghlal FC took a 0-2 defeat away at Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Shamal a 1-4 defeat away at Al Sadd.
How many goals are expected in Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.00 for Esteghlal FC and 2.20 for Al Shamal. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.