Al Taawon vs Al Faisaly: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Al Taawon the pick at 55% for Al Taawon vs Al Faisaly. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Al Taawon face Al Faisaly on 4 November 2026 at Al Taawon Arena, Buraidah. Al Taawon are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This group stage 4 fixture in AFC Champions League Two is listed as Al Taawon - Al Faisaly. Kick-off is 18:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Al Taawon: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +3.
Al Faisaly: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Al Taawon | Al Faisaly |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLDW | LDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 9 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.1 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 20% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Al Taawon 49.1 versus Al Faisaly 34.8, a gap of 14.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.60, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Al Taawon's way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Al Taawon at 55%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Al Taawon's way, especially at Al Taawon Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al Taawon or Al Faisaly?
Al Taawon, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Al Taawon, 25% the draw and 20% Al Faisaly.
When and where is Al Taawon vs Al Faisaly being played?
4 November 2026 at Al Taawon Arena, Buraidah, kick-off 18:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Al Taawon and Al Faisaly?
Al Faisaly 0-2 Al Taawon on 28 October 2026.
What is the recent form of Al Taawon and Al Faisaly?
Al Taawon have taken 7 points from their last five (WLLDW), Al Faisaly 10 from theirs (LDWWW). Most recently Al Taawon took a 2-0 win away at Al Faisaly and Al Faisaly a 0-2 defeat at home to Al Taawon.
How many goals are expected in Al Taawon vs Al Faisaly?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.60 — 0.60 for Al Taawon and 0.00 for Al Faisaly. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.