Kitchee vs Phnom Penh Crown: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Kitchee the pick at 43% for Kitchee vs Phnom Penh Crown. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Kitchee host Phnom Penh Crown on 5 November 2026 at Mong Kok Stadium, Hongkong. Kitchee are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This group stage 4 fixture in AFC Champions League Two is listed as Kitchee - Phnom Penh Crown. Kick-off is 10:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Kitchee: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -2.
Phnom Penh Crown: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored nine and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Kitchee | Phnom Penh Crown |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | -2 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWDW | WWDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 8 | 9 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.2 | 56.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 37% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Kitchee 31.2 versus Phnom Penh Crown 56.0, a gap of 24.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Kitchee's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Kitchee at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Phnom Penh Crown's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Kitchee's way, especially at Mong Kok Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Kitchee or Phnom Penh Crown?
Kitchee, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Kitchee, 20% the draw and 37% Phnom Penh Crown.
When and where is Kitchee vs Phnom Penh Crown being played?
5 November 2026 at Mong Kok Stadium, Hongkong, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Kitchee and Phnom Penh Crown?
Phnom Penh Crown 2-0 Kitchee on 29 October 2026.
What is the recent form of Kitchee and Phnom Penh Crown?
Kitchee have taken 7 points from their last five (LLWDW), Phnom Penh Crown 13 from theirs (WWDWW). Most recently Kitchee took a 0-2 defeat away at Phnom Penh Crown and Phnom Penh Crown a 2-0 win at home to Kitchee.
How many goals are expected in Kitchee vs Phnom Penh Crown?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.00 for Kitchee and 2.00 for Phnom Penh Crown. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.