Ipswich vs Arsenal: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Ipswich and Arsenal on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Ipswich face Arsenal on 15 September 2026 at Portman Road, Ipswich. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 45%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This round of 32 fixture in League Cup is listed as Ipswich - Arsenal. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Ipswich: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (74 scored and 48 conceded in 45 matches, 1.64 and 1.07 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Arsenal: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (116 scored and 39 conceded in 59 matches, 1.97 and 0.66 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ipswich | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWW | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 11 | 10 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 45 | 59 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.64 / 1.07 | 1.97 / 0.66 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.73 | 2.31 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 12% | 42% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Ipswich none wins, Arsenal two wins, none draws — an edge to Arsenal.
- Most recent meeting: Ipswich 0-4 Arsenal on 20 April 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Ipswich 25.0 versus Arsenal 25.0, a gap of 0.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 32%.
- First goal: Leans Arsenal's way at 60%.
The call
The model does not commit. A draw is the nominal pick at 45%, but the three results sit close to even. Arsenal's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ipswich or Arsenal?
Neither side. Our model splits it 12% Ipswich, 45% the draw and 42% Arsenal, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Ipswich vs Arsenal being played?
15 September 2026 at Portman Road, Ipswich, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Ipswich and Arsenal?
Ipswich 0-4 Arsenal on 20 April 2025.
What is the recent form of Ipswich and Arsenal?
Ipswich have taken 9 points from their last five (LLWWW), Arsenal 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Ipswich took a 0-2 defeat at home to Liverpool and Arsenal a 1-0 win away at Napoli.
How many goals are expected in Ipswich vs Arsenal?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.20 for Ipswich and 2.20 for Arsenal. It rates over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 32%, so its call is no.