Liverpool vs Tottenham: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Liverpool the pick at 57% for Liverpool vs Tottenham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Liverpool face Tottenham on 15 September 2026 at Anfield, Liverpool. Liverpool are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This round of 32 fixture in League Cup is listed as Liverpool - Tottenham. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Liverpool: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (95 scored and 73 conceded in 53 matches, 1.79 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Tottenham: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (78 scored and 67 conceded in 49 matches, 1.59 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Liverpool | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDDD | DLWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 7 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 53 | 49 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.79 / 1.38 | 1.59 / 1.37 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.6 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 9% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 5 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Liverpool five wins, Tottenham one win, one draw — an edge to Liverpool.
- Most recent meeting: Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham on 15 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 5.14 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Liverpool 25.0 versus Tottenham 25.0, a gap of 0.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 18% and both teams to score at 38%.
- First goal: Leans Liverpool's way at 69%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Liverpool at 57%, a gap of 24 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Liverpool's way, especially at Anfield.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Liverpool or Tottenham?
Liverpool, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Liverpool, 33% the draw and 9% Tottenham.
When and where is Liverpool vs Tottenham being played?
15 September 2026 at Anfield, Liverpool, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Liverpool and Tottenham?
Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Liverpool and Tottenham?
Liverpool have taken 9 points from their last five (WWDDD), Tottenham 5 from theirs (DLWLD). Most recently Liverpool took a 2-1 win at home to Atletico Madrid and Tottenham a 0-0 draw away at Nottingham Forest.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Tottenham?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Liverpool and 1.40 for Tottenham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 18%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 38%, so its call is no.