Peterborough vs Barnsley: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Peterborough the pick at 57% for Peterborough vs Barnsley. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Peterborough host Barnsley on 15 September 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough. Peterborough are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This round of 32 fixture in League Cup is listed as Peterborough - Barnsley. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Peterborough: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 34 conceded in 23 matches, 1.61 and 1.48 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Barnsley: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 47 conceded in 27 matches, 1.37 and 1.74 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Peterborough | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWW | LWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.61 / 1.48 | 1.37 / 1.74 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 9% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 1) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Peterborough 25.0 versus Barnsley 25.0, a gap of 0.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.33, over 2.5 goals at 15% and both teams to score at 35%.
- First goal: Leans Peterborough's way at 71%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Peterborough at 57%, a gap of 24 percentage points to the next outcome. Barnsley's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Peterborough's way, especially at Weston Homes Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Peterborough or Barnsley?
Peterborough, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Peterborough, 34% the draw and 9% Barnsley.
When and where is Peterborough vs Barnsley being played?
15 September 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Peterborough and Barnsley?
Barnsley 2-1 Peterborough on 17 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Peterborough and Barnsley?
Peterborough have taken 7 points from their last five (LDLWW), Barnsley 10 from theirs (LWWWD). Most recently Peterborough took a 1-2 defeat at home to Sheffield Wednesday and Barnsley a 1-5 defeat at home to Stevenage.
How many goals are expected in Peterborough vs Barnsley?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.33 — 1.00 for Peterborough and 1.33 for Barnsley. It rates over 2.5 goals at 15%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 35%, so its call is no.