Vasco DA Gama vs Santa Fe match summary and prediction — CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Our model makes Vasco DA Gama the pick at 62% for Vasco DA Gama vs Santa Fe. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Santa Fe travel to Vasco DA Gama on 15 September 2026. Vasco DA Gama are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This quarter finals fixture in CONMEBOL Sudamericana is listed as Vasco DA Gama - Santa Fe. Kick-off is 22:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Vasco DA Gama: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 38 conceded in 32 matches, 1.28 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +4.
Santa Fe: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, three draws and no defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 27 conceded in 27 matches, 1.26 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Vasco DA Gama | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | — |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWWW | DDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 2 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 32 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.28 / 1.19 | 1.26 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.38 | 1.3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 7% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Vasco DA Gama 56.0 versus Santa Fe 25.0, a gap of 31.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 13% and both teams to score at 33%.
- First goal: Leans Vasco DA Gama's way at 76%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Vasco DA Gama at 62%, a gap of 32 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vasco DA Gama or Santa Fe?
Vasco DA Gama, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% Vasco DA Gama, 30% the draw and 7% Santa Fe.
When and where is Vasco DA Gama vs Santa Fe being played?
15 September 2026, kick-off 22:00 UTC.
Have Vasco DA Gama and Santa Fe met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Vasco DA Gama and Santa Fe?
Vasco DA Gama have taken 10 points from their last five (DLWWW), Santa Fe 6 from theirs (DDWD). Most recently Vasco DA Gama took a 0-0 draw away at Santa Fe and Santa Fe a 0-0 draw at home to Vasco DA Gama.
How many goals are expected in Vasco DA Gama vs Santa Fe?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.80 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.40 for Santa Fe. It rates over 2.5 goals at 13%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 33%, so its call is no.