Bayern München vs Arsenal: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Bayern München the pick at 67% for Bayern München vs Arsenal. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Arsenal travel to Bayern München on 21 October 2026 at Allianz Arena, Munich. Bayern München are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Champions League is listed as Bayern München - Arsenal. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bayern München: they come in on two successive draws, following three wins before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (174 scored and 60 conceded in 54 matches, 3.22 and 1.11 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +5.
Arsenal: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (116 scored and 39 conceded in 59 matches, 1.97 and 0.66 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bayern München | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +5 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWWW | WWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 19 / 6 | 11 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 54 | 59 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 3.22 / 1.11 | 1.97 / 0.66 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.56 | 2.31 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.6 | 46.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 6% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Bayern München none wins, Arsenal two wins, none draws — an edge to Arsenal.
- Most recent meeting: Arsenal 3-1 Bayern München on 26 November 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bayern München 39.6 versus Arsenal 46.0, a gap of 6.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.60, over 2.5 goals at 100% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Bayern München's way at 69%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Bayern München at 67%, a gap of 41 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Bayern München's way, especially at Allianz Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bayern München or Arsenal?
Bayern München, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% Bayern München, 26% the draw and 6% Arsenal.
When and where is Bayern München vs Arsenal being played?
21 October 2026 at Allianz Arena, Munich, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bayern München and Arsenal?
Arsenal 3-1 Bayern München on 26 November 2025.
What is the recent form of Bayern München and Arsenal?
Bayern München have taken 11 points from their last five (DDWWW), Arsenal 12 from theirs (WWLWW). Most recently Bayern München took a 3-3 draw away at Viking and Arsenal a 3-0 win at home to Lille.
How many goals are expected in Bayern München vs Arsenal?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.60 — 3.40 for Bayern München and 2.20 for Arsenal. It rates over 2.5 goals at 100%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.