FC Porto vs Napoli — form, head-to-head and match prediction
FC Porto host Napoli with a season still short of where it should be — 34th in UEFA Champions League and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
FC Porto host Napoli on 4 November 2026. FC Porto are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Champions League is listed as FC Porto - Napoli. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Porto: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 24 conceded in 29 matches, 1.66 and 0.83 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 34th on a goal difference of -4. For a club of FC Porto's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Napoli: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 49 conceded in 40 matches, 1.38 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -2. For a club of Napoli's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Porto | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 34th | 22nd |
| Goal difference | -4 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLW | WDWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 12 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 29 | 40 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.66 / 0.83 | 1.38 / 1.23 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.07 | 1.7 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.0 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 25% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Porto 24.0 versus Napoli 34.5, a gap of 10.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: FC Porto are 34th with a goal difference of -4 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans FC Porto's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to FC Porto at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Porto or Napoli?
FC Porto, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% FC Porto, 23% the draw and 25% Napoli.
When and where is FC Porto vs Napoli being played?
4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have FC Porto and Napoli met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FC Porto and Napoli?
FC Porto have taken 9 points from their last five (WWLLW), Napoli 7 from theirs (WDWLL). Most recently FC Porto took a 1-0 win at home to Academico Viseu and Napoli a 4-1 win away at Monza.
How many goals are expected in FC Porto vs Napoli?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.80 for FC Porto and 2.00 for Napoli. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.