Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Fenerbahçe host Liverpool with a season still short of where it should be — 31st in UEFA Champions League and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
Fenerbahçe host Liverpool on 4 November 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul. Liverpool are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Champions League is listed as Fenerbahçe - Liverpool. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Fenerbahçe: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 6 conceded in seven matches, 1.14 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.5 out of 100, and they sit 31st on a goal difference of -6. For a club of Fenerbahçe's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Liverpool: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 3 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 0.5 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Fenerbahçe | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 31st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -6 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWLW | DWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 10 | 15 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.14 / 0.86 | 1.67 / 0.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.57 | 2.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 43.5 | 56.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 49% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Fenerbahçe 43.5 versus Liverpool 56.2, a gap of 12.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Fenerbahçe are 31st with a goal difference of -6 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: 28 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Liverpool's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Liverpool at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Liverpool's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fenerbahçe or Liverpool?
Liverpool, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 27% Fenerbahçe, 23% the draw and 49% Liverpool.
When and where is Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool being played?
4 November 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Have Fenerbahçe and Liverpool met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Fenerbahçe and Liverpool?
Fenerbahçe have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWLW), Liverpool 13 from theirs (DWWWW). Most recently Fenerbahçe took a 1-2 defeat away at Galatasaray and Liverpool a 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea.
How many goals are expected in Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.20 for Fenerbahçe and 1.60 for Liverpool. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.