Manchester United vs AS Roma — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Manchester United host AS Roma with a season still short of where it should be — 21st in UEFA Champions League and winless in five. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
Manchester United face AS Roma on 3 November 2026 at Old Trafford, Manchester. Manchester United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Champions League is listed as Manchester United - AS Roma. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Manchester United: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (58 scored and 42 conceded in 32 matches, 1.81 and 1.31 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 21st on a goal difference of -1. For a club of Manchester United's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
AS Roma: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 30 conceded in 31 matches, 1.68 and 0.97 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of +3. For a club of AS Roma's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Side by side
| Statistic | Manchester United | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 21st | 15th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLD | WDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 11 | 16 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.81 / 1.31 | 1.68 / 0.97 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.88 | 1.77 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 39.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 37% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Manchester United 34.8 versus AS Roma 39.1, a gap of 4.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Manchester United are 21st with a goal difference of -1 and winless in five — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Manchester United's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Manchester United at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Manchester United's way, especially at Old Trafford.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Manchester United or AS Roma?
Manchester United, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Manchester United, 20% the draw and 37% AS Roma.
When and where is Manchester United vs AS Roma being played?
3 November 2026 at Old Trafford, Manchester, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Manchester United and AS Roma met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Manchester United and AS Roma?
Manchester United have taken 2 points from their last five (LLDLD), AS Roma 10 from theirs (WDWWL). Most recently Manchester United took a 0-3 defeat at home to Bournemouth and AS Roma a 4-2 win at home to Cagliari.
How many goals are expected in Manchester United vs AS Roma?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.40 for Manchester United and 2.40 for AS Roma. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.