Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Anderlecht host Red Bull Salzburg with a season still short of where it should be — 22nd in UEFA Europa League and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
Anderlecht face Red Bull Salzburg on 5 November 2026 at Lotto Park, Anderlecht. Anderlecht are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Anderlecht - Red Bull Salzburg. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Anderlecht: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 7 conceded in nine matches, 1.67 and 0.78 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of +1. For a club of Anderlecht's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Red Bull Salzburg: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 6 conceded in eight matches, 2.12 and 0.75 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 21st on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Anderlecht | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 22nd | 21st |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLL | WWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 11 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.67 / 0.78 | 2.12 / 0.75 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.44 | 2.25 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.2 | 37.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 29% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Anderlecht 35.2 versus Red Bull Salzburg 37.6, a gap of 2.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Anderlecht are 22nd with a goal difference of +1 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Anderlecht's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Anderlecht at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Red Bull Salzburg's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Anderlecht's way, especially at Lotto Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Anderlecht or Red Bull Salzburg?
Anderlecht, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Anderlecht, 23% the draw and 29% Red Bull Salzburg.
When and where is Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
5 November 2026 at Lotto Park, Anderlecht, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Have Anderlecht and Red Bull Salzburg met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Anderlecht and Red Bull Salzburg?
Anderlecht have taken 6 points from their last five (WLWLL), Red Bull Salzburg 10 from theirs (WWDWL). Most recently Anderlecht took a 4-1 win at home to KVC Westerlo and Red Bull Salzburg a 3-2 win away at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz.
How many goals are expected in Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 1.60 for Anderlecht and 2.80 for Red Bull Salzburg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.