AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa League
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar the pick at 45% for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Juventus travel to AZ Alkmaar on 5 November 2026 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as AZ Alkmaar - Juventus. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
AZ Alkmaar: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 8 conceded in seven matches, 1.71 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +4.
Juventus: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 11 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | AZ Alkmaar | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWDW | LWDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 6 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.71 / 1.14 | 1.17 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.57 | 0.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.0 | 49.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 33% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: AZ Alkmaar 46.0 versus Juventus 49.8, a gap of 3.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans AZ Alkmaar's way at 51%.
The call
The model tilts to AZ Alkmaar at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Juventus' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts AZ Alkmaar's way, especially at AFAS Stadion.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AZ Alkmaar or Juventus?
AZ Alkmaar, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% AZ Alkmaar, 22% the draw and 33% Juventus.
When and where is AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus being played?
5 November 2026 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have AZ Alkmaar and Juventus met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of AZ Alkmaar and Juventus?
AZ Alkmaar have taken 7 points from their last five (LLWDW), Juventus 7 from theirs (LWDLW). Most recently AZ Alkmaar took a 0-1 defeat away at Ajax and Juventus a 0-2 defeat away at Genoa.
How many goals are expected in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.40 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.20 for Juventus. It rates over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.