Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Marseille travel to Bayer Leverkusen needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 34th and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Bayer Leverkusen face Marseille on 5 November 2026 at BayArena, Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Bayer Leverkusen - Marseille. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bayer Leverkusen: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (93 scored and 74 conceded in 51 matches, 1.82 and 1.45 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +8.
Marseille: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (97 scored and 63 conceded in 49 matches, 1.98 and 1.29 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.8 out of 100, and they sit 34th on a goal difference of -5. For a club of Marseille's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Bayer Leverkusen | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 34th |
| Goal difference | +8 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWW | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 10 | 11 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 51 | 49 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.82 / 1.45 | 1.98 / 1.29 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.67 | 1.65 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.0 | 23.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Bayer Leverkusen 57.0 versus Marseille 23.8, a gap of 33.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Marseille are 34th with a goal difference of -5 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: 32 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Bayer Leverkusen's way at 67%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Bayer Leverkusen at 67%, a gap of 49 percentage points to the next outcome. Bayer Leverkusen's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Bayer Leverkusen's way, especially at BayArena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bayer Leverkusen or Marseille?
Bayer Leverkusen, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% Bayer Leverkusen, 15% the draw and 18% Marseille.
When and where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille being played?
5 November 2026 at BayArena, Leverkusen, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille?
Bayer Leverkusen have taken 9 points from their last five (LWLWW), Marseille 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently Bayer Leverkusen took a 2-4 defeat at home to VfB Stuttgart and Marseille a 4-3 win at home to Le Havre.
How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 2.20 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.20 for Marseille. It rates over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.