Benfica vs Lech Poznan — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Benfica the pick at 75% for Benfica vs Lech Poznan. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Lech Poznan travel to Benfica on 5 November 2026. Benfica are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 75%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Benfica - Lech Poznan. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Benfica: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 6 conceded in eight matches, 3.62 and 0.75 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +8.
Lech Poznan: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 12 conceded in eleven matches, 2.27 and 1.09 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.3 out of 100, and they sit 32nd on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Benfica | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 32nd |
| Goal difference | +8 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | WLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 16 / 4 | 12 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 11 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 3.62 / 0.75 | 2.27 / 1.09 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.75 | 2.27 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.0 | 26.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 75% | 10% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Benfica 57.0 versus Lech Poznan 26.3, a gap of 30.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 31 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.80, over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Benfica's way at 74%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Benfica at 75%, a gap of 60 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Benfica or Lech Poznan?
Benfica, with an implied win probability of roughly 75%. The full split is 75% Benfica, 15% the draw and 10% Lech Poznan.
When and where is Benfica vs Lech Poznan being played?
5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Benfica and Lech Poznan met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Benfica and Lech Poznan?
Benfica have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Lech Poznan 10 from theirs (WLWDW). Most recently Benfica took a 4-1 win at home to GIL Vicente and Lech Poznan a 3-1 win at home to Wisla Krakow.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.80 — 3.20 for Benfica and 2.60 for Lech Poznan. It rates over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.