Bournemouth vs AC Milan: match summary, form and prediction
AC Milan travel to Bournemouth needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 16th and unbeaten in three. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
AC Milan travel to Bournemouth on 22 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 50%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Bournemouth - AC Milan. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bournemouth: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 44 conceded in 34 matches, 1.53 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
AC Milan: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 29 conceded in 23 matches, 1.3 and 1.26 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.5 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of +2. For a club of AC Milan's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Bournemouth | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 16th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWD | WDWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 34 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.53 / 1.29 | 1.3 / 1.26 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.62 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.0 | 35.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 24% | 26% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Bournemouth 46.0 versus AC Milan 35.5, a gap of 10.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: AC Milan are 16th with a goal difference of +2 and unbeaten in three — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Bournemouth's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Bournemouth's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bournemouth or AC Milan?
Neither side. Our model splits it 24% Bournemouth, 50% the draw and 26% AC Milan, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Bournemouth vs AC Milan being played?
22 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Bournemouth and AC Milan met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Bournemouth and AC Milan?
Bournemouth have taken 7 points from their last five (WLLWD), AC Milan 8 from theirs (WDWLD). Most recently Bournemouth took a 3-0 win at home to Sturm Graz and AC Milan a 4-0 win away at Red Bull Salzburg.
How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.20 for Bournemouth and 1.60 for AC Milan. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.