Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa League
Our model makes a draw the pick at 47% for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Celje host Red Bull Salzburg on 22 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 47%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Celje - Red Bull Salzburg. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Celje: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 11 conceded in six matches, 1.83 and 1.83 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.8 out of 100, and they sit 35th on a goal difference of -5.
Red Bull Salzburg: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 31 conceded in 21 matches, 1.48 and 1.48 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.2 out of 100, and they sit 21st on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Celje | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 35th | 21st |
| Goal difference | -5 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLL | LDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 7 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 6 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.83 / 1.83 | 1.48 / 1.48 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.83 | 1.1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 23.8 | 34.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 13% | 40% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Celje 23.8 versus Red Bull Salzburg 34.2, a gap of 10.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 98% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Red Bull Salzburg's way at 56%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 47%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Celje or Red Bull Salzburg?
Neither side. Our model splits it 13% Celje, 47% the draw and 40% Red Bull Salzburg, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Celje and Red Bull Salzburg met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Celje and Red Bull Salzburg?
Celje have taken 4 points from their last five (LWDLL), Red Bull Salzburg 7 from theirs (LDLWW). Most recently Celje took a 0-3 defeat at home to Omonia Nicosia and Red Bull Salzburg a 0-4 defeat at home to AC Milan.
How many goals are expected in Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 3.00 for Celje and 1.00 for Red Bull Salzburg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 98%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.