Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise the pick at 50% for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Union St. Gilloise travel to Celta Vigo on 5 November 2026. Union St. Gilloise are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Celta Vigo - Union St. Gilloise. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Celta Vigo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 7 conceded in seven matches, 0.86 and 1.0 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 25th on a goal difference of -1.
Union St. Gilloise: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 9 conceded in eight matches, 3.62 and 1.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.1 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Celta Vigo | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 25th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWWL | WWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 15 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.86 / 1.0 | 3.62 / 1.12 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.43 | 2.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 50.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 25% | 50% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Celta Vigo 34.8 versus Union St. Gilloise 50.1, a gap of 15.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 19 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Union St. Gilloise's way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to Union St. Gilloise at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Celta Vigo or Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 25% Celta Vigo, 26% the draw and 50% Union St. Gilloise.
When and where is Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Celta Vigo and Union St. Gilloise met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Celta Vigo and Union St. Gilloise?
Celta Vigo have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWWL), Union St. Gilloise 13 from theirs (WWWWD). Most recently Celta Vigo took a 0-3 defeat away at Rayo Vallecano and Union St. Gilloise a 2-1 win away at SK Beveren.
How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 1.00 for Celta Vigo and 3.80 for Union St. Gilloise. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.