Celtic vs Celta Vigo: match summary, form and prediction
Celtic host Celta Vigo with a season still short of where it should be — 33rd in UEFA Europa League and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
Celtic host Celta Vigo on 22 October 2026 at Celtic Park, Glasgow. Celtic are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Celtic - Celta Vigo. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Celtic: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (59 scored and 43 conceded in 32 matches, 1.84 and 1.34 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.8 out of 100, and they sit 33rd on a goal difference of -5. For a club of Celtic's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Celta Vigo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (68 scored and 65 conceded in 48 matches, 1.42 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.5 out of 100, and they sit 28th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Celtic | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 33rd | 28th |
| Goal difference | -5 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLLL | LDWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 11 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 48 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.84 / 1.34 | 1.42 / 1.35 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.94 | 1.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 23.8 | 24.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 9% |
Key match insights
- Big club, bad season: Celtic are 33rd with a goal difference of -5 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.60, over 2.5 goals at 24% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Celtic's way at 69%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Celtic at 58%, a gap of 26 percentage points to the next outcome. Celta Vigo's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Celtic's way, especially at Celtic Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Celtic or Celta Vigo?
Celtic, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Celtic, 33% the draw and 9% Celta Vigo.
When and where is Celtic vs Celta Vigo being played?
22 October 2026 at Celtic Park, Glasgow, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Celtic and Celta Vigo met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Celtic and Celta Vigo?
Celtic have taken 3 points from their last five (LWLLL), Celta Vigo 5 from theirs (LDWLD). Most recently Celtic took a 1-4 defeat away at Benfica and Celta Vigo a 1-2 defeat at home to Juventus.
How many goals are expected in Celtic vs Celta Vigo?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.60 — 0.00 for Celtic and 0.60 for Celta Vigo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 24%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.